Florida State vs. New Mexico State prediction, pick: The Aggies can cover the spread in Week 0

Florida State opens its 2026 season as a major five-score favorite against New Mexico State in Week 0, but the bigger storyline is whether coach Mike Norvell can rebuild momentum after a rough 2024 (two wins) and a 5-7 finish in 2025, even with an opening upset of Alabama. The Seminoles then face SMU in Week 1 and a rematch with Alabama in Week 2, with the losing coach potentially on the hot seat by Week 3. New Mexico State is projected 125th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ model, and the betting angle centers on the Aggies keeping within a 31.5-point spread.