Global central bank tightening, high crude to restrain FII inflows to India: Kotak Securities

Kotak Securities expects foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows into emerging markets—and into India—to remain limited over the next two to three months, citing high crude oil prices and global monetary tightening. Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities, told ANI in Mumbai that crude has been “going up and up,” while U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan rate hikes and around 5% U.S. bond yields create headwinds for foreign liquidity. He suggested India could benefit from a possible market rotation tied to an “anti-AI trade,” but warned India’s current account deficit is under pressure from an inflated import bill, including heavy crude imports and gold priced at USD 4,300–4,500 an ounce. On the currency, he said nearly 90% of depreciation is already priced in, expecting the rupee to stay range-bound at 94–97.