It's all in the numbers: Expanded World Cup brings more shocks, but heavyweights still rule

The expanded World Cup to 48 teams is making major upsets more likely, but the tournament’s longer format still tends to favor traditional heavyweights with the depth to perform across five knockout rounds, according to analysts cited by Reuters. FIFA added more than 10 days by increasing the field from 32 to 48, introducing a new round of 32. That extra knockout game means teams must survive one additional elimination match to win the trophy. Achim Zeileis of Universitaet Innsbruck, using machine-learning simulations of every match, said the probability of stronger teams advancing is reduced to about 80% or 75%. He also flagged new uncertainty in a revised group stage, where eight of 12 third-placed teams qualify, increasing strategic permutations. Examples include Germany losing to Paraguay and the Netherlands falling to Morocco at the round of 32.