Prof. Robert Pape to Newsmax: Iran Ceasefire Over

A University of Chicago professor warns that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is effectively over as renewed military strikes push the conflict into a new escalation phase. Speaking on Newsmax’s “Sunday Agenda,” Prof. Robert Pape said the weekend actions by Iran, the United States, and now Israel and Lebanon indicate the temporary truce has broken down. He described the situation as the “middle game” of a prolonged escalation, arguing that the fighting may not necessarily return to weeks of sustained bombing but that Iran has shown unwillingness to be deterred. Pape linked the renewed attacks to President Donald Trump’s social media warning that the U.S. could “finish the job” if Tehran continues violating the ceasefire around the Strait of Hormuz. He said observers mistaken for an “end game” are underestimating the escalation, which ends only when principal combatants accept a new balance of power. He also cautioned commercial shipping through the Strait remains vulnerable because insurers and shipping companies—not governments—could determine whether tankers continue sailing, warning of wider economic consequences.