Shell's Refining Margin Soars to Record High After Middle East Conflict Upends Fuel Markets -- Update

Shell expects its refining margin—the gap between crude costs and fuel values—to hit a record high in the third quarter amid Middle East-driven volatility and a global squeeze in fuel supply. The London-based energy company forecast its refining margin marker at $42 per barrel for Q3, up from $24 per barrel in Q2. Shell said the previous record was $28.04 per barrel shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While margins rose, Shell reported lower refinery activity due to low water levels on Germany’s River Rhine, cutting utilization to 93%–97% from 102%. The article ties tight product markets to damaged jet fuel and diesel capacity, record U.S. diesel at $6.31 per gallon, and continued risk into 2027.