The conflict's silver lining: How Gulf states can rebuild for a new era of economic resilience and growth

The GCC faces a transformative opportunity to anchor more of its growth internally and integrate with global demand as the Iran conflict recedes. A new infrastructure doctrine is urged to build resilient systems and advanced industrial stacks, tying together energy, logistics, data centers, and AI hubs. Pre-war plans already projected over $900 billion in infrastructure through 2035, but the conflict pushes this higher, potentially exceeding $1 trillion due to damage, higher construction costs, and elevated geopolitical risk. The GCC is encouraged to leverage its energy and material strengths—oil, gas, helium, ammonia, sulfur—to shift from bulk exports toward high-value inputs for technology and defense, expanding employment in knowledge-intensive sectors.

A three-pronged execution plan prioritizes hard-currency assets that restore export capacity, attract international capital, and deepen regional industrial depth. Leaders must align rebuilding with export resilience, capital formation, and strategic ties to global value chains while sustaining competitiveness and lifting long-term productivity.