The Revival of Frozen Conflicts Amid Authoritarian Coalescence

The Revival of Frozen Conflicts Amid Authoritarian Coalescence describes how territorial disputes and long-dormant tensions are moving toward armed conflict as a coalition of sanctioned authoritarian states consolidates. The article frames the “Neo-Authoritarian Bloc” (NAB) as an alignment of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Belarus, Venezuela, and Myanmar, whose flexible, treaty-light cooperation differs from Cold War alliances. It points to earlier shifts such as Russia’s invasions of Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014), and China’s intensifying Taiwan claims later in the 2010s. The piece highlights February 2022 Sino-Russian “No Limits” as a milestone in growing cohesion. It argues the NAB has revived disputes including Venezuela’s claims over Guyana’s Essequibo region and Bosnia-Serb secessionist rhetoric, while enabling proxies that escalate regional violence. Still, it notes setbacks tied to regime survival, including the Assad regime’s collapse in late 2024 and Iran’s failure to halt 2025–2026 US-Israeli airstrikes.