Will U.S. wheat exports see boost from Russia-Ukraine conflict?

USDA’s September Supply and Demand report suggests the Russia-Ukraine war has not yet translated into a surge in U.S. wheat exports. The agency kept its 2026-27 estimate at 717 million bushels, a three-year low, citing only modest changes elsewhere despite continued disruption to Black Sea shipments. USDA lowered Russian and Ukrainian exports by a combined 4 million metric tons (nearly 7%) from prior forecasts. Through mid-September, U.S. wheat shipments totaled 208.5 million bushels, down 28% from the same period a year earlier, based on export inspections. Hard red winter wheat futures jumped to three-year highs early September, topping $8.58 per bushel on Sept. 2, then slipped below $8. Market analysts said supplies globally still look ample as USDA raised world ending stocks to 276.3 million metric tons.