Zero‑sum exhaustion: The new shape of global conflict

The article frames today’s major geopolitical confrontations as a “zero-sum exhaustion” phase, where no party can achieve decisive victory or impose a clear endgame. It argues modern wars function more like long-distance marathons aimed at avoiding defeat rather than winning. The result is conflict that is harder to resolve, more ambiguous, and politically corrosive, with armies advancing while strategic outcomes remain unchanged. It points to a shift toward “permanent low-intensity warfare,” where tensions are managed instead of settled. The piece cites examples including Ukraine entering a third year of fighting, Gaza being treated as a conflict that “must not be allowed to end,” Yemen caught between truce and continued war, and Sudan facing instability with no actor willing to resolve it. The competitive context is that major powers prefer influence without the reconstruction and governance obligations of decisive outcomes.