ASML Keeps Raising Its Sales Forecast. Here's What Comes Next for ASML Stock.

ASML is back in focus on July 15 after reporting a strong Q2 and raising its full-year guidance for the second time. Management now expects AI-driven demand to push sales to at least €43 billion in 2026, above consensus estimates of about €38 billion. Despite the upbeat outlook, options-market data suggests caution for ASML shares at current levels. Barchart reports a put-to-call ratio of 5.13x for contracts expiring mid-October, indicating a bearish skew, with put options priced around $1,405, implying potential downside of more than 20%. The article links this to valuation concerns, citing roughly 47x forward earnings versus peers such as Nvidia and Micron. Geopolitical risks also remain, with China representing about 20% of sales and U.S. and EU pressure aimed at limiting access to advanced DUV systems, on top of existing EUV export restrictions. Wall Street, however, still shows a “Strong Buy” consensus and a mean target near $2,033.