Credit outlook tied to AI investment confidence while consumer sectors face headwinds: Fitch

Fitch Ratings says the U.S. credit outlook is increasingly tied to confidence in AI investment, while consumer sectors and private credit face growing headwinds. In a report dated July 27, Fitch points to AI-driven economic and capital markets momentum: IT capital expenditure rose 18% year-on-year in Q1 2026 and added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth. It also cites a 26% year-on-year increase in corporate bond issuance in the first half of 2026, supported by debt funding for hyperscaler capex. However, Fitch warns that the pipeline of planned debt and equity issuances in 2H26 could strain market capacity, especially with equity valuations still reliant on optimistic AI returns. The agency cut its 2026 GDP growth expectation to 1.9% and revised consumer forecasts, including CPI to 3.7% and a 6.5% mortgage rate view.