First Light News: Payrolls, Midterms and the AI Wobble

First Light News tied together the timing of Fed expectations, recent weakness in AI-linked markets, and the upcoming overlap between U.S. midterms and payroll data. It noted that December’s Fed hike is only about 63% priced in, while last week’s “AI trade” took a hit. In New Zealand, the RBNZ held the OCR at 2.75% instead of hiking to 3.00% as widely expected; the BoC raised its overnight rate as expected; and the Fed, ECB and BoJ stood pat. U.S. data showed Q3 GDP at 3.4% versus 3.2% consensus, aided by inventories and federal spending, alongside stronger PCE inflation. But consumer fundamentals looked stretched, with real disposable income down 0.3% and the savings rate slipping to 3.8% from 4.1%. In equities, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.5% on Friday toward a third correction this year.