Taiwan: Expects record trade surplus thanks to pivotal role in AI hardware and investment reorientation

Taiwan expects a record trade surplus of $205.4 billion in 2026, according to forecasts from its central bank reported by the Taipei Times. The figure would be 4.2 times higher than the $49.2 billion surplus recorded in 2018, the year the US-China tariff dispute began. The government-linked outlook attributes the change to Taiwan’s pivotal role in artificial intelligence (AI) hardware production, as US efforts to diversify supply chains away from China boost demand. The article says server exports to the US are supporting growth in semiconductor manufacturing and advanced chip packaging. Taiwan imports memory chips from South Korea and wafer fabrication equipment and materials from Japan, while outsourcing medium- and low-tech manufacturing to ASEAN partners, positioning the country at the center of AI supply chains and redirecting investment away from China toward the US, Japan, and Southeast Asia.