Two key things that need to happen before Strait of Hormuz traffic can return to prewar levels

The framework for peace between the U.S. and Iran extends the cease-fire for another 60 days, but traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not poised to surge immediately. Analysts at Kpler estimate about 119 laden tankers are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf, with a reopening expected around June 19 on paper. Mechanical reopening could take 10 to 15 days to clear the backlog, followed by gradual growth from roughly 15 to 40 transits per day in the first month as questions about sea mines and Iran's control are resolved. Two key steps are needed before prewar traffic levels return: clearer safety assurances and lower vessel war-risk insurance rates.