UBS Flags Crude 'Danger Zone' as SPR Buffers Rapidly Disappear | Investing.com UK

UBS warns that crude’s danger zone widens as SPR buffers rapidly decline and inventories fall toward critical levels. Combined crude inventories dropped by 17.8 million barrels—the largest drawdown on record since 1982—while SPR releases bought time without solving the imbalance. With the Strait of Hormuz intermittently constrained, the market’s ability to absorb further disruptions is waning, heightening the risk of a sharper oil repricing. UBS notes that net supply disruption through Hormuz sits around 9 million barrels per day after SPR actions, implying roughly a 9% shock and potential price pressure toward $123 absent ongoing buffers.