Why SpaceX's Biggest IPO Catalyst Isn't AI -- It's Scarcity

SpaceX dominates three business lines—rockets, Starlink, and AI infrastructure via xAI—yet its IPO remains tethered to scarcity as the primary catalyst, according to Morningstar’s analysis. 2025 revenues are cited as $4 billion from rockets, $11 billion from Starlink, and $3 billion from AI, with about half of AI revenue attributed to advertising from Twitter, highlighting the startup’s diverse revenue mix. Morningstar’s moats assessment notes cost advantages in rockets and Starlink, supported by R&D that enables higher lift per kilogram. The discussion frames scarcity of float and investor enthusiasm as short-term positives, while suggesting valuation discipline for long-term holders.