Can $1 billion buy victory in the midterm elections? Some Republicans fear the answer is no

Republicans are entering the final month of the 2026 midterm campaign increasingly worried that their roughly $1 billion cash advantage may not prevent major losses. The bulk of the money is attributed to MAGA Inc., aligned with Donald Trump, which had nearly $416 million on hand at the end of August and boosted spending in September. Several Republican Senate campaign officials say that waiting until September forced Trump-aligned groups to pay far higher advertising rates than organizations that booked airtime earlier. In some cases, MAGA Inc. has been the only group running messages attacking Democratic candidates. The pressure is highlighted in Texas, where Trump stumps again on Wednesday for Republican Sen. Ken Paxton. AdImpact reported MAGA Inc. spending of over $22 million in the past month, while Texas PAC has spent more than $83 million to protect a seat considered typically safe.