Investors prosper and consumers pay as the Iran war exacts an...

Six months after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, some of the most dire economic forecasts—oil spikes, recession and global catastrophe—haven’t fully materialized, even as the war has still disrupted parts of the economy. Early on, uncertainty pushed stock markets lower: the Dow and Nasdaq slid into corrections and the S&P 500 logged its worst month since 2022. Since the late-March market bottom, the Dow is up nearly 19%, the S&P has risen about 22% and the Nasdaq is up 27%. The IMF says the economy is shaped by growth strain from the war but offset by AI enthusiasm, while consumers face higher costs. Oil prices tied to slowdowns in the Strait of Hormuz climbed from about $72 to nearly $120 a barrel and remain roughly 20% above prewar levels.