Ray Dalio Warns US Debt Crisis Could Deepen as $2.1T in New Treasury Supply Hits Market: 'Credit Market P

Ray Dalio warned that the U.S. could slide toward a “death spiral” driven by an oversupply of government debt. The structural problem, he said, is taking shape as rising Treasury yields persist despite increased bond buyback efforts. Dalio’s argument is that when debt supply outruns demand—and debt-service costs increasingly squeeze other spending—yields tend to rise, pushing interest expenses and deficits higher and forcing even more borrowing. He pointed to new Treasury market friction: in September, the U.S. tripled long-term buybacks to a $6 billion maximum, yet 10-year yields still climbed to multi-year highs. Dalio projects $2.1 trillion in net new marketable debt in 2026, with corporate issuance also accelerating.