Satellite climate signals preceded 2024 cocoa price shock by 16 weeks

A new study published in Frontiers in Remote Sensing reports that satellite-derived climate indicators detected stress in West Africa’s cocoa belt 16 weeks before the 2024 cocoa price shock. Cocoa futures rose above US$12,000 per metric ton in 2024 after two decades mostly below US$3,800. Researchers combined plantation-scale cocoa maps with weekly satellite and reanalysis data on precipitation, soil moisture and 2-meter temperature, alongside cocoa futures from 2000 to 2025. The cocoa footprint contracted by 3,757 square kilometers (2.5%) between 2020 and 2024, with soil moisture shifting downward in December 2023 and temperature rising in July 2023. Results show climate shifts preceded the high-price regime in most simulations, though the authors caution this is observational, not causal prediction.