Investors Say There's One Facebook For Every Startup Failure. Is That True?

Venture capitalists often argue there’s a “home run” for every startup that fails, a claim highlighted by The New York Times. The article challenges that view with figures tied to how VC returns are distributed. Marc Andreessen estimates that around 4,000 U.S. startups per year could plausibly qualify for venture capital, and that top firms finance about 200. He says roughly 15 of those generate more than 90% of investment profits. A 2026 NBER/Stanford study found that only 5% of VCs produced 90% of investment gains. The piece stresses that VC “success” doesn’t always mean outsized outcomes for founders.