SpaceX Reports Tuesday: Google Revenue Missing as H2 Math Stays Unsettled

SpaceX is set to release second-quarter 2026 results after the market close on Tuesday, August 4, but analysts say the headline revenue figure won’t be the real focus. The stock was trading around $108, down about 20% from its $135 IPO price, with an intraday low of $107.01 set four days earlier. Consensus expects $6.87 billion in Q2 revenue, versus about $4.69 billion in Q1, for a first-half total near $11.56 billion. Banks including HSBC and Morgan Stanley forecast 2026 full-year revenue between roughly $38 billion and more than $50 billion—requiring H2 to more than double first-half pace. The key driver is compute leasing to AI clients: Anthropic’s $1.25 billion per month contract for Colossus 1 (running through May 2029) contributes about $2.5 billion in Q2, while Google’s $920 million per month agreement begins in October and won’t meaningfully appear in Q2; Reflection AI at $150 million per month started July 1. The article argues H2 acceleration depends on contract timing rather than whether Q2 beats estimates.