Filling up your car won't feel normal until next summer, S&P says

Even as the conflict in the Middle East shows signs of easing, S&P Global warns that normal fueling patterns won't resume until next summer and likely beyond. A memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran to end the hostilities opens Hormuz to commercial traffic, but physical markets are expected to remain tight well into 2027. Analysts note that despite a deal, restoring flows will take time and may require substantial repair and resupply effort. The International Energy Agency described the disruption as the largest oil-market shock in history. S&P projects that supply losses could exceed 1.5 billion barrels by the end of June. Wood Mackenzie outlined a best-case normalization timeline, estimating pre-war production returning to about 70% within three months and 90% within six months, with the final tranche around 1 million bpd taking longer. Oxford Economics cautioned that shipping faces higher costs and greater risk heading into the near term, slowing recovery even if prices respond quickly. The combination of supply-side constraints and logistical issues suggests a gradual rebound in physical flows, not an immediate return to pre-war levels.