One year after the end of the EV tax credit, is the future still electric?

One year after the federal EV tax credit ended, the picture is mixed: EV sales surged during the final months of the program, but have since settled into a lower, steadier range. The credit was eliminated as part of 2025’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” and it officially expired on September 30, 2025—prompting a rush. Edmunds data shows EVs rose to 11.4% of new car sales in September 2025, then fell in the following quarters once the credit ended. Late 2025 EV sales dropped 36% year over year, and were down 27% in Q1 2026. Through 2026, EVs account for roughly 5–6% of new sales, with Edmunds and Cox Automotive agreeing. Instead, hybrids are gaining momentum: Edmunds reports hybrid sales up nearly 27% over the past year, including a jump in March after the U.S. began its war in Iran, an event not reflected in many 2026 forecasts.