Kalshi Launches Prediction Markets for Clinical Trials and FDA Decisions | PYMNTS.com

Kalshi launched prediction markets tied to clinical trials and FDA decisions, with contract examples released on July 16. The company said the markets at launch include questions such as whether AR1001’s POLARIS-AD Phase 3 trial will meet its primary endpoint in early Alzheimer’s disease, and whether the FDA will approve Gilead/Arcellx’s anito-cel for relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. Kalshi said the odds will be publicly viewable and continuously updated, based on evidence beyond information provided by the trial sponsor. The program also includes additional anti–insider-trading measures. AppliedXL will supply resolution infrastructure. CEO Tarek Mansour said the industry is information-constrained and committed to “compliance-first” design, while AppliedXL’s Francesco Marconi said resolving requires reconciling data across registries and filings.