States at risk of losing federal SNAP funds, new data shows: What to know

States face increased scrutiny over SNAP funding as new data shows error rates remain well above federal targets, putting partial money at risk. After the “One Big Beautiful Bill” last year, the Trump administration warned states that failing to keep SNAP benefit error rates in check could reduce federal support starting with the 2028 fiscal year. The target is an error rate under 6%, but federal data released in June indicates more states exceed double that threshold than meet it. For states above 6%, requirements begin in October 2027, when they must cover between 5% and 15% of benefit costs. The national average error rate is about 11%, while only nine states—Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming—were below 6% in 2025. The cost shift does not directly cut benefits for recipients, but a Congressional Budget Office estimate links it to potential reductions or eliminations for about 300,000 people and child-nutrition subsidy declines for about 96,000 children. Missouri is cited with an 8.7% error rate and 2024 SNAP benefits of about $1.5 billion, implying roughly $150 million in state-covered costs if errors persist.