Tilray Stock Has Crashed 90%. Could Marijuana Rescheduling Spark a Massive Comeback?

Tilray Brands has endured a dramatic stock decline, with shares down more than 90% over the past five years, underscoring the cannabis sector's persistent underperformance versus broader markets. The broader cannabis industry has been a disappointment, and Tilray has not been immune to the trend. Despite some optimism around regulatory developments in the United States, a sustained rally for Tilray remains uncertain. The company sits at the forefront of the sector with a U.S. footprint that includes CBD and hemp products and a craft-brewing business. A potential catalyst is a federal move that would shift FDA-approved cannabis products from Schedule I to Schedule III, following an executive order attributed to President Trump. Under the new classification, Schedule III products are seen as less prone to abuse, which could ease research and expand medical development, although recreational legalization would not be achieved at the federal level. A hearing is scheduled for next month to discuss whether other forms should also be rescheduled. Even in the best case, the rescheduling alone may not transform Tilray's fortunes given remaining state-by-state restrictions that complicate shipping and require multi-state facilities, leading to higher costs. Tilray's opportunities in the U.S. market include CBD and hemp lines and its craft-brewing business, but profitability remains challenged for most cannabis operators. Investors should weigh regulatory progress against structural industry headwinds before calling a major turnaround.