Aluminium on thin ice as LME stocks hit 36-year low

Aluminium LME stocks have fallen to their lowest level since 1990, highlighting a supply-chain disruption linked to the Iran war. Gulf production of primary aluminium is down by about 2 million metric tons per year since the Feb. 28 U.S. and Israel attacks on Iran. Registered LME inventories have been cut in half since the start of 2026 to just 250,000 tons. Yet LME pricing and time-spreads have not moved sharply, as the market points to faster recovery potential, including progress at the UAE’s Al Taweelah smelter, accelerating Indonesian shipments and a Chinese export surge. The catch is that LME availability is concentrated: almost all remaining warrant-pool aluminium is Russian and largely owned by one entity. Indian stocks have been heavily drained—registered levels dropped from 236,000 tons to 12,450 tons in a year—while off-warrant inventories have thinned.