Cocoa Prices Are Rising Again. Ecuador Has Less Left to Sell

Cocoa prices are rising again as traders price in a shortage risk tied to a potentially stronger El Niño, affecting both harvest and exports. On Monday, cocoa in London jumped 12% to 4,200 pounds per tonne, its highest level since November, while New York climbed 13% to nearly $5,700. The rally comes as Ecuador’s cocoa export earnings have reportedly fallen sharply: the country earned $668 million from cocoa and derivatives between January and April, versus $1.5 billion in the same period of 2025. That implies a loss of $955 million, or 59%, including a 63.5% decline in the first quarter. Traders cited forecast odds of unusually strong El Niño, linked to excess rain and later dry, hot winds that can damage crops. Ecuador’s exporter association says physical volume shipped fell 16% as well. Shipments to the U.S. and EU dropped 61% and 67%, respectively, while China and Russia increased purchases.