Council Post: What To Consider When Using Prediction Markets To Inform Business Decisions​

Prediction markets can signal odds, but the hard part is translating those probabilities into business decisions, says Pravesh Mansharamani, CEO and co-founder of Totalis. He argues the next useful products in the space will “connect a forecast to a choice” rather than just showing prices. Leaders should start with the decision an event could affect and frame prediction questions accordingly—using examples like New York City delivery rules reviewed on September 30. Mansharamani cautions against overreading probabilities, separating “passage” from “implementation,” and ensuring preparations can begin based on the decision timeline, not the market’s outcome.