Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to count votes this week as policymakers decide on a widely expected quarter-point rate hike and signal the future direction of monetary policy. After a 9-3 split in July, the two-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday will reveal how divided the 12-member committee remains. Markets are pricing a near-certain 0.25% move, with FedWatch at more than 92% probability for the hike and over 75% for another move in December, according to CME Group. Fed funds are currently 3.50% to 3.75%. The challenge for Warsh is messaging—whether it is “one-and-done” or more hikes—amid debate over whether inflation is temporary or could persist.