First light news: Payrolls, Midterms and the AI wobble

A weekly market wrap highlights mixed central-bank signals and renewed focus on US labour data and midterm politics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by holding its OCR at 2.75% instead of raising it to 3.00%. In contrast, the Bank of Canada increased its overnight rate as expected, while the Fed, ECB and BoJ held steady. In the US, early Q3 GDP came in at 3.4% versus 3.2% consensus, supported by inventories and federal spending, alongside firmer September PCE inflation. The consumer picture appears stretched: real disposable income fell 0.3% and the savings rate dropped to 3.8% from 4.1%. Equities saw pressure on the AI trade, with the Nasdaq 100 down 3.5% on Friday. Ahead, attention turns to Tuesday’s midterms and Friday’s October non-farm payrolls, seen as more market-moving than the election.