Midterm years, October is usually the best month for stocks, with gains 73.7% of the time | Fortune

In U.S. midterm election years, October has historically been the strongest month for stocks, according to seasonal data cited by Carson Group strategist Ryan Detrick. In a chart posted on X on Sept. 20, Detrick found that since 1950 October averaged about a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and delivered positive returns 73.7% of the time. November ranked second with a 2.7% average gain and positive returns 78.9% of the time. September has been the weakest month, averaging a 0.8% decline. UBS Global Research and J.P. Morgan Asset Management also point to a typically choppy late-summer-to-early-fall setup followed by a rally into year-end.