Opinion - The peril of transactional deterrence: How the US unwittingly shifted Taiwan's timeline

The review argues that Washington’s shift to transactional deterrence undermines long-standing Taiwan deterrence. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing is framed as not just de-escalation but a signal that strategic architecture has shifted, making Taiwan a negotiable variable within broader trade and security dealings. The piece warns that deterrence depends on perceived consequences; if red lines become negotiable, alliance credibility suffers. It notes the CHIPS and Science Act diversifies supply chains away from Taiwan, enabling TSMC to accelerate a second U.S. 3-nanometer facility in Phoenix to begin high-volume production by late 2027, and Apple pledging to buy over 100 million Arizona-made chips this year. While diversification supports resilience, it could alter calculations in Beijing about cost of conflict, suggesting Beijing is drawing strategic inferences that impact deterrence and alliance cohesion.