Technical signals lay out the road map for stocks through the rest of 2026

Technical signals point to a path of volatility followed by a potential year-end rally for U.S. equities through 2026. In a note to clients on Monday, Ned Davis Research’s chief U.S. strategist Ed Clissold said the S&P 500 needs to endure a period of turbulence before resuming a bull market late in the year. He linked the market’s recent pullback—less than 1% from the June peak—to traders taking profits in semiconductor and memory sectors and to concerns tied to the war with Iran after April. The S&P 500 is about 8% above its 200-day moving average, which Clissold cited as technical support suggesting the uptrend remains intact. NDR’s models are described as mixed, implying consolidation or corrections into the seasonally weak third quarter. Clissold also expects volatility could continue through mid-August, with an early-October pullback setting up the next bull-market phase, absent another major news shock.