The Aug. 12 Inflation Report Could Decide Whether Kevin Warsh Raises Rates in September

The Aug. 12 U.S. CPI report could determine whether Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh supports a rate hike at the Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting. Markets have increasingly questioned the path to easing as oil prices rise, inflation appears stubborn, and Treasury yields stay near nearly 20-year highs. A Financial Times report, citing people familiar with Warsh’s thinking, says he remains open to raising rates if upcoming inflation data runs hotter than expected and markets price in higher borrowing costs. Five inflation reports are scheduled before the FOMC. CPI arrives first and often sets expectations. Energy is a key risk: WTI rose about 21% in July and Brent about 24% after renewed fighting involving Iran.