Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Fed Minutes in Focus as Near-Term Rate-Hike Prospects Dim

Markets are set to focus on a busy calendar for FX and bonds in the week starting October 5, with U.S. Federal Reserve minutes likely driving the biggest swings as near-term rate-hike odds fade. The Fed’s September meeting minutes arrive Wednesday, after weak U.S. jobs data reduced expectations for another hike as early as October 28; money markets put the probability of an October increase at 18% after previously pricing 70%. September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 versus 84,000 expected. Investors will also watch ISM services, trade data, weekly jobless claims, and Michigan sentiment, while 10- and 30-year Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs.