Brazil Focus Survey Lifts Inflation Forecast to 5.01%

Brazil’s central bank Focus survey lifted its 2026 inflation forecast to 5.01% from 4.99%, reported Monday, 5 October. The median is back above 5% and above the 4.5% ceiling of Brazil’s official target range, a key input for how quickly the central bank can cut the Selic, which remains well above US levels. The survey trimmed 2026 and 2027 growth expectations and left the projected rate path unchanged. Economists revised the September inflation estimate to 0.60% and edged the 12-month inflation outlook down to 4.59%. The Focus also raised the 2026 IGP-M forecast to 5.27%. The Selic was cut to 13.75% in September, with analysts expecting one more cut in November.