Brent oil near USD 100 raises concerns over India's inflation, forex reserves; sustained rally unlikely: Experts

With Brent crude hovering near USD 100 per barrel, experts say the price level raises concerns for India’s inflation outlook, current account deficit, and foreign exchange reserves, though they do not expect a sustained rally above USD 100. Citing a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin, the article notes India’s crude oil basket fell sharply to USD 75.6 per barrel in July from a April peak of USD 114.5. At the time of reporting, Brent traded around USD 98.08 and WTI around USD 89.63. Sourav Choudhary of Raghunath Capital said higher oil prices can increase India’s import bill, pressure the rupee and widen the CAD, but impacts may remain manageable in the near term due to diversified sourcing and discounted purchases. Ajay Bagga warned that risks could resemble March 2026 if Brent stays above USD 100 for an extended period, driving stronger pressure on reserves and inflation. The article also references the RBI view that retail fuel prices have diverged from international crude pricing.