Does 'ceasefire' still have any real meaning? - Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

Does 'ceasefire' still have any real meaning? The Peace Research Institute Oslo warns that ceasefighters are changing character as conflict parties accept higher levels of violence within the label ceasefire. In Gaza, the current ceasefire signed last October remains in effect through 18 June 2026, yet more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed during this period. That follows tallies of over 70,000 killed in the two years before the pause, with researchers suggesting underreporting of 35-40 percent, which could lift the true toll toward 100,000. The line between ceasefire and war is becoming blurred, and even a 1,000-death year can trigger war classifications under UCDP.

Two plausible explanations for this drift are that neither side declares the ceasefire over, keeping civilians in an untenable limbo, while both sides avoid escalation that could be catastrophic. The territory in Gaza is effectively divided by a shifting 'yellow line,' further complicating daily life. If Hamas determines the ceasefire has ended, Israel would escalate, risking greater suffering. In prior research, PRIO shows most ceasefires are embedded in peace processes, but the Gaza example highlights how the label now operates amid continued violence, prompting questions about what progress a ceasefire can legitimately signify.