Việt Nam updates two inflation scenarios, tightens price management for year-end

Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance updated its inflation outlook for 2026, projecting annual inflation of either 4.5% or 4.8% under two scenarios and warning that tighter price management is needed in the year-end months. Deputy Minister of Finance Trần Quốc Phương said domestic prices could stay under pressure in the fourth quarter due to global energy and raw-material swings, exchange-rate risks, possible supply chain disruptions from geopolitical tensions, and changes to trade and tariff policies. Accelerated public investment and rising demand for construction and production inputs could boost aggregate demand, while supply adjusts more slowly. The State Bank of Vietnam expects average inflation up to 5%, while international organizations forecast 4.2%–5.5%. Authorities also cited CPI trends: September’s CPI rose 0.62% from August and 4.2% from December 2025, with core inflation up 4.2%.