Consumer prices would have fallen if not for Trump's tariffs, New York Fed says

A new paper from the New York Fed argues that President Donald Trump’s tariffs were the main driver of higher prices for many everyday consumer goods in early 2024 and through most of 2025. Researchers analyzed the tariff effects on 67 common goods, weighting results using 2022 consumer spending data. Without the tariffs, they estimate most of those prices would have fallen, dropping by about 1 percentage point in January and February and staying lower into early 2026. The tariff impact peaked in February at roughly 3 percentage points, then was expected to fade to near zero by August. The study focuses on goods prices, excluding services like rent and also energy costs.