Votes from Israel's Arab citizens could help decide the election.

Israel’s election is increasingly being shaped by Arab citizens’ voting patterns, with the race too close to call between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot. Polls show neither bloc has secured a decisive majority, and the next prime minister is not guaranteed. Around a dozen parties are expected to clear the threshold for Israel’s 120-seat Knesset, but coalition-building—requiring at least 61 lawmakers—will determine who governs. Netanyahu’s Likud, led by the 77-year-old who has led for 19 of the last 34 years, faces criticism over security failures before the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack, judicial reforms, and an ultra-Orthodox draft exemption. Eisenkot’s new Yashar! party highlights those vulnerabilities and backs investigations into failures preceding Oct. 7.