Daily Memo: Is Industry More Vulnerable To A Slowdown? | Aviation Week

Aviation Week’s Daily Memo argues that even with strong aerospace and defense momentum, the industry may be more exposed when a downturn eventually arrives. It points to ongoing constraints—labor shortages, rising raw-material prices, tariffs and an unresolved U.S.-Iran situation—yet highlights that demand remains strong and funding continues from Washington to Wall Street. Jefferies’ analysis of second-quarter results shows year-over-year revenue growth led by the commercial aftermarket (+15%), followed by commercial OEM (+14%) and defense (broadly +8%). McKinsey research, however, suggests 47% of surveyed respondents expect air travel growth to slow below the 3–5% RPK baseline, with more than three-quarters expecting sub-baseline performance over the next two to three years. Airlines show the highest slowdown likelihood at 56%.