High airfares could stick around even if jet fuel prices fall

U.S. airlines and analysts say high airfares may persist even if jet fuel prices fall, largely because airlines plan capacity and pricing months ahead and face hard limits on adjusting already-sold tickets. Jet fuel spiked after the Iran war began, dropped in spring, then surged again through summer, with volatility making it harder to lower fares. Jet fuel rose faster than oil, reflecting higher crude prices and tight supplies of refined fuel, a major operating expense. Even as the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index fell from $4.88 per gallon in early April to $2.70 in June, average fares stayed elevated. The average fare (excluding optional fees) rose from $405 in late 2025 to $428 in Q1 and $436 in April–June. In August, U.S. airfares were 23% higher than a year earlier, and jet fuel reached $4.53 per gallon on Sept. 17, according to Argus, with holiday travel pricing at the highest level in a decade.