Sustainable Aviation Fuel: The Long Road to Large-Scale Production

Sustainable Aviation Fuel remains central to aviation’s net-zero goal for 2050, but supply is still far below what is required for decarbonization. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects global SAF production to reach about 2.4 million tonnes this year, or nearly 0.8% of total aviation fuel consumption. Even with this increase, IATA says production is not keeping pace with the scale of expansion needed over the coming decades. The core barrier is economics: SAF typically costs between two and five times more than conventional jet fuel, a gap airlines struggle to absorb amid thin margins and fuel-price volatility. IATA estimates airlines will spend about $4.3 billion on SAF in 2026 as air travel demand grows. The challenge extends beyond cost to execution of announced projects into operational plants: of 165 SAF projects announced over the past decade, only 36 reached production, with many delayed, canceled, or lacking timelines. Companies including Sasol and Topsoe have adjusted strategies, including gradual closure of their Zaffra venture, while continuing cooperation via technology licensing.