Verstappen could be much slower in Mexico: Predictions produce unusual lap time

Max Verstappen’s pole-setting pace from last year—1:16.070 in Mexico City qualifying—may be out of reach under the new 2026 F1 regulations, according to GPblog’s comparison and telemetry simulation. GPblog matched the fastest qualifying laps from 2025 and 2026 across sixteen similar circuits and found the cars are, on average, 2.88% slower this season, with a median deficit of 2.74%. Applying the median gap to Verstappen’s 2025 Mexico qualifying lap yields about 1:18.15, more than two seconds off. The forecast isn’t a guarantee; Red Bull’s actual performance at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez could vary with setup and hybrid deployment. The simulation points to potential losses on the long straight into Turn 1 if battery state affects acceleration, plus time changes in the Turns 7–11 complex due to revised aerodynamics and downforce. Mechanical grip and traction through the stadium slow corners may also be decisive.