Fed decision make-or-break for Bitcoin's Q4, Nexo data suggests

Bitcoin ended the third quarter up 42.7%, rising from $58,544 to $83,570 and snapping three straight losing quarters. Nexo’s “Digital Assets in Q4: Market Outlook” report, published October 21, says the Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest-rate decision is now the key swing factor for the rest of Q4. The Q3 rebound was driven by a macro shift: on August 19, the US Treasury said it would double purchases of long-dated bonds, compressing yields and lifting risk assets. The report cites ETF net inflows of $2.65 billion in September, but notes October flows have flipped to net outflows ahead of the Fed. With options and CME FedWatch pricing a hold (~68%) versus a hike (~32%), CPI came in at 3.7% y/y and core inflation at 2.6%. Technically, a “double bottom” neckline near $82,000 remains unconfirmed after Bitcoin’s latest weekly close slipped to $80,900, below the level.