Why Isn't Oil at $90? Markets Could Be Underpricing the Strait of Hormuz Risk

Markets are being tested over a perceived disconnect between rising geopolitical risk and oil prices that remain far below $90 per barrel, even as reports say commercial vessels have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. The article notes that about one-fifth of global oil consumption passes through the narrow waterway, making it a critical chokepoint for energy shipments. Despite the attacks, Brent crude is described as trading near $73 a barrel, which the piece frames as a sign of market complacency about the likelihood of broader disruption. It argues that oil pricing can react when confidence in uninterrupted supply fades, not necessarily only after full closures. The article suggests investors should watch physical and operational indicators such as tanker traffic through the Gulf, export volumes, freight rates, marine insurance premiums, and refinery activity. It also emphasizes that geopolitical crises often lead to larger repricing after markets assume containment.