Buy Verizon over Alphabet if a history of Dow changes is any guide

Verizon is set to lose its spot in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with Alphabet replacing the telecom company on June 29, 2026, ending Verizon’s 25-year run. The change is expected to increase the index’s exposure to artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digital advertising. Still, the article points to the “Curse of the Dow,” a pattern where stocks added to the Dow sometimes underperform compared with the months leading up to their inclusion. Looking at the last seven Dow changes since 2015, five of the removed stocks outperformed their replacements over the following 12 months.

It notes that Verizon shares were up 7.5% over the prior 12 months, while Alphabet shares had doubled, and the Dow itself rose more than 20% in the same period. The piece cites academic research suggesting companies removed from major indexes can outperform replacement stocks over subsequent years, potentially reflecting investor overreaction and depressed valuations. As an example, it references the 2024 switch when Nvidia replaced Intel, stating Intel surged from $26.20 on November 8 to about $132, while Nvidia rose to around $200 from about $147.